Before every exam, a handful of people come out of the woodwork and shamelessly ask about subject predictions for the bar exam.
“Does anyone know the essay predictions?” “What do you think will be tested?” “I don’t think ____ will appear on the exam.” “Anyone think ____ will be tested?” “I know we’re not supposed to listen to predictions, but…” “What are ____’s predictions?” “Here are my MEE predictions!”
Whose predictions are you going to listen to?
If you’re like many bar takers, or if you’re a repeater, you say: “Haha of course I’m not going to rely on the predictions. I shall adequately study all the subjects. You should too!”
And then you panic and look at the predictions anyway.
Did you want me to tell you, “Aww poor baby, don’t worry. It’s normal and happens to the best of us 🥺”?
You SHOULD worry if you’re secretly tempted about relying on predictions… because this kind of thinking is entirely predictable and avoidable. Sweating about predictions is not a good place to be and requires intervention.
Also, remember when subjects actually leaked for the California exam in 2019 and people got mad over it? Do you want to know the subjects ahead of time or not? Make up your minds!
Maybe you’re too young to remember ancient history. I’ve been dealing with you people for too long.
Here’s why you should look toward essay or MEE subject predictions only for entertainment value and morbid curiosity (and 3 things you can focus on instead):
You’re probably wondering how this whole remote bar exam thing is going to work.
Do I get scratch paper?
Can I use a desktop?
How many monitors can I use for ExamSoft/SofTest/Examplify (or whatever exam software)?
Do I need to be online?
Can I print?
Are they going to proctor me through a camera?
Can I take bathroom breaks?
What about cheating?
What about the MBE? How many questions? Is it all on a screen?
What if I’m handwriting?
Uh, yeah, I’m sure you have a lot of questions.
Right now, all the states are having a brawl and doing whatever they feel is necessary to conduct their bar exams.
Many states are shifting from in-person paper testing to an almost entirely digital exam, at least for the 2020 Fall bar exam. This is a significant change, and something worth discussing in terms of preparation and test-taking strategies.
All right, so you just want to pass the easiest bar exam in the easiest state and get it over with.
No honor, no warrior spirit, or any of that shit—just gimme the bar card! This is especially true if you plan to practice in a state that accepts UBE scores (or MBE scores). You may be able to transfer your UBE score from an “easier” state.
You also want to avoid the hardest bar exams, naturally. Why waste a good six months torturing yourself again just because you missed a few points?
No judgment from me. You’re here to move on with your life and forget I ever existed. That’s cool.
So what are we going to look at to figure out the easiest bar exams to pass?
Recent pass rates by state
Minimum passing UBE scores
Number of applicants by state
Score portability and transferability
The verdict – a shortlist of three states to consider, and states to avoid